Research

Research interests are in the areas of agricultural marketing and price analysis, agricultural risk management, performance of market advisory services, forecast evaluation, commodity market efficiency and behavior of speculators in commodity markets.

Forthcoming Journal Articles

The Impact of WASDE Reports on Implied Volatility in Corn and Soybean Markets Agribusiness

Producers' Complex Risk Management Choices Agribusiness

To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond? Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics

Working Papers

Forecast Performance of Futures Price Models for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat (Oct 2007)

Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets (Sep 2007)

Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts (Jun 2007)

Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Aggregation? (Jun 2007)

The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits (May 2007)

How to Hedge Selectively: A Bayesian Approach (Jan 2006)

The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets:A Data Mining Free Test (May 2005)

A Reality Check on Technical Rules in US Futures Markets(May 2005)

Does the Market Anticipate Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? (Aug 2004)

Heterogeneity in Economic Behavior (May 2004)

Farmdoc Publication Series

Marketing & Outlook Briefs (View Archived Publications)

Are Corn Trend Yields Increasing at a Faster Rate? (February 2008)

So How Do I Make Corn and Soybean Pricing Decisions? (January 2008)

Marketing & Outlook Research Reports (View Archived Publications)

Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt (February 2008)

AgMAS Reports (View Archived Publications)

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Soybeans over 2002-2004 (June 2006)

Advisory Service Marketing Profiles for Corn over 2002-2004 (June 2006)

Miscellaneous Publications

Recent Delivery Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts (Apr 2008)
Statement to the CFTC Agricultural Forum, April 22, 2008

Presentations

300 Bushels in Every Field? The Rising Debate about Corn Trend Yields (Apr 2008)
34th James C. Snyder Lecture to the Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets (Mar 2008)
Invited paper presented at the Information, Policy, and the Food System Conference, Washington, DC.

Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market? (Jul 2005)
Principal paper presentation at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association. The session was entitled, "New Facts on the Marketing Performance of U.S. Farmers."

Writing Competitive, Outstanding Proposals (Jul 2005)
Organized symposium presentation at the 2005 Annual Meeting of the American Agricultural Economics Association. The session was entitled, "Preparing Social Science Research Proposals: Competing with Small Fish in a Big Pond, or Small Fish in a Small Pond?"

The Performance of Market Advisory Services in Corn and Soybeans (Apr 2005)
Seminar presentation to the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University.